Model Portfolio Update - 12/10/2009

For some reason or another the website I use to manage my model portfolio has changed their policies. I will now have to use another site, through facebook (yeah I know), to manage the portfolio. I will have to reestablish my positions for the coming down move, so this could take awhile. Anyway, there is some good that has come out of this. I can continue to use a portfolio that I have been managing for awhile on facebook, so my track record is a little longer and easier for you to evaluate.

Here is the link to the new portfolio:

http://apps.facebook.com/kaching/portfolio/516251517/holdings

Market Update:

Nothing has really changed. The market seems to be grinding away in a distribution phase. We are either forming a rounded top or are setting ourselves up for one more push higher. If we do push higher I believe it will be with force, but it will be short lived. I will maintain my short positions, as I don't see any remaining upside being to dramatic. Hold on. I smell something big brewing in the coming weeks.

Potential Causes of Crisis:

-Sovereign default (Dubai, Greece, Spain, Latvia...etc..)
-Weak holiday sales figures
-Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy (reverse repurchase agreements)

Something is brewing. Investors are at complacency levels not seen since the top in October 2007 and nothing has changed to fix our economy. We slapped a band-aid on the bleeding last fall. However, that band-aid can only last for so long. The following chart shows exactly why it is ludicrous to think that we are out of this mess. Deleveraging is nasty, and it hasn't even started yet.

Really, where do you think the spending is coming from to prop us this economy? It sure isn't coming from you and I. It is coming from the government. Have you noticed the explosion in Federal and State contracts? This is how the economy is staying alive. What happens when the government can't borrow anymore money to spend? China already doesn't want to loan us anymore. I don't really think the oil states do either. Check out this chart. Once our credit card is cut off and the federal spending stops we are in for a rude awakening.

Total Federal Government Debt