Friday, August 20, 2010

More bearish signs over last two week...

I've been on vacation for the last 10 days so my analysis has been limited but it's safe to say the tides are starting to turn bearish. What will be the event that will be the turning point? Will it be a US-BP scandal? (NOAA scientist lied) (toxic dispersant) (dead fish) European bankrupt countries not named Greece? (Spain, Portugal, Ireland, etc. ) Maybe something closer to home (California) Or simply an acceptance that ponzi finance isn't the answer and a de-leveraging of the system is inevitable and will push assets lower. Who know, but here's a very short bearish/bullish list.

USD ticker UUP - Best long
Health Care

High Yields
Crude Oil

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

S&P EWT Update: Target 1150

I still have my price target around 1150 on S&P. As you can see there is heavy resistance between 1145 and 1155. Exact timing is the hardest to do with EWT as you can see from my last S&P EWT post where the estimated end of the rally was July 29th at 1150. That timing was based on 100% time extension of wave a of C for wave c of C. This timing was rather unreasonable given the nature of wave a of C. So here's the next notable times: 161.8% of Wave A close 8/12; 261.8% of Wave a of C close 8/11; 161.8% of wave 1 close 8/18.

Keep an eye on the price with the timing as an afterthought.

Is Steel Leading the Market?