- Daily - Neutral
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
- The S&P is bullish on the weekly chart all the way to 1200, a break of that resistance zone would signal a lot of upside to come.
- The daily chart is a little extended with numerous negative divergences. So, a small pullback is due, at minimum. We will watch key support levels for buying opportunities.
Weekly S&P 500
Friday, August 20, 2010
USD ticker UUP - Best long
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Keep an eye on the price with the timing as an afterthought.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Monday, June 28, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Monday, June 14, 2010
Thursday, June 10, 2010
- It looks to me as if there is a strong possibility in this rally continuing....however, don't be suprised if it falls off a cliff.
- Everyone is watching the SPX 1040 level for a breakdown. If it breaks watch for some fireworks.
- Nevertheless, it looks like Ben could keep the music going a little longer. There is some heavy buying going on, some not seen since the March 2009 lows. Dollar bulls are at record highs (bad for market) and market participants are just as pessimistic now as they were near the March 09' lows.
- What the verdict? .......it smells like a rally a coming
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
- I'm not real sure, but I believe it could be time to go shopping for some value in Greece.
- The world is scared to death of Greece and like Buffet says, "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others our fearful."
- I'm buying some National Bank of Greece (NBG) right here.
On The Descent Into A Weimar Reality - More and more pundits claim that the true historical analog to our current tumultuous times are not the days after 1929, but the period between 1919 and 1923 in post WW I Germany, also known as th Weimar Republic.
With Everyone Expressing Their Fake Support For The Euro, Iran Is Now Openly Dumping €45 Billion - Iran's central bank will sell 45 billion euros from its reserves to buy dollars and gold ingots, a report on the website of state-owned Press TV said on Wednesday.
How Much Economic Growth Is “Artificial”? - Add it up and only one quarter of the last seven (Q4 2009) has been able to show real growth in excess of government stimulus.
Trading and Investments
The Ultimate Hedge in Economic Crisis - Consider health care the ultimate hedge in times of economic crisis. Not only is it the last area that people cut back, it doesn't lose value in good times, as gold does. As a percentage of our economy, health care overshadows sectors that are far more subject to economic fluctuations, such as energy.
US Attorney General Launches Criminal, Civil Investigation Into BP Oil Spill - It's about that time for someone to ask a few questions of BP former Chairman Peter Denis Sutherland (until January 2010), who just happens to be a non-executive director of Goldman Sachs, which incidentally sold just under 5 million shares, or nearly 40% of their BP stake, in the quarter ended March 31?
Libertarian Warren Redlich blasts Republican opponents for supporting Democrats in the past - Libertarian Party nominee for Governor of New York Warren Redlich took some shots at his Republican opponents for having supported Democrats in past elections.
"There Are too Many Bureaucrats, and They Are Paid too Much" - The Center for Freedom and Prosperity's latest video looks at how a large part of the soaring federal and state government debt is due to a massive, overpaid bureaucracy.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
- Sometimes history seems to repeat itself.
- 2007 saw the collapse of the largest housing bubble in U.S. history, the lead up to this collapse is shown in chart #1.
- The U.S. reflation trade of 2009 and early 2010 also was fueled by a massive amount of liquidity, creating another bubble in the U.S. equity markets. This can be seen in chart #2. Notice the similarities in the rise of 2006/2007 to 2009/2010.
- What if the collapse of this bubble mirrors the collapse of 2007/2008? Check out chart #3, we could be in for another bumpy couple of years.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
- Stock market internals are suggesting at least a short term rebound is upon us.
- This bounce could last anywhere from a few days to a couple of weeks, who knows.
- Once the buying stops the downtrend should resume in full force, so be careful playing the long side of the market.
- As of right now our portfolio remains in cash. Check it out by clicking the "model portfolio" link located on the right hand side of the page.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
- Looks like the U.S. banking index is losing a major support level.
- Support, when broken, turns into resistance. This isn't a good sign for the markets.
U.S. Banking Index
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Link to article
Here's the highlights of the article:
"Regulators say it makes sense to reach for remedies now, even though they have yet to determine the exact cause of the May 6 market dive."
"The rules would take effect in mid-June under a six-month pilot program agreed to by major U.S. exchanges and the Securities and Exchange Commission."
"Under the plan, trading of any Standard & Poor's 500 stock that rises or falls 10 percent or more within a five-minute span would be halted for five minutes. These rules, known as "circuit breakers," would be applied if the price swing occurs between 9:45 a.m. and 3:35 p.m. Eastern time. That's almost the entire trading day."
"Importantly, the new circuit breakers would apply to all U.S. exchanges. Most of the 50 or so U.S. exchanges regulate themselves and design their own tools for slowing or halting trading."
Friday, May 14, 2010
Thursday, May 6, 2010
- This is a measure of the amount of risk investors are willing to assume.
- As you can see it is breaking down out of its trend channel. This indicator usually leads the market; therefore, it could be warning of further downside to come before a decent bounce.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
- I'm sure the market should fall right now. I just don't know if it will or not.
- Yesterday I positioned myself net short, but will buy pullbacks strongly when I think the time is right.
- My favorites are China and the energy sector.
- You can check out my portfolio with a 20 minute delay in the link at the top right hand side of the page or right here anytime 24/7.
Monday, April 26, 2010
- I noticed a huge head & shoulders pattern today when looking at a long-term weekly chart of the China ETF FXI.
- This could be huge, with a price target north of the highs in 2008.
- Maybe we haven't even seen the beginning of the China bubble?
- There could be some money to be made if this happens to breakout. Keep it on your watch list.
Friday, April 23, 2010
“It is a [disputed] question, whether the circulation of paper, rather than of specie [gold and silver coin], is a good or an evil… I believe it to be one of those cases where mercantile clamor will bear down reason, until it is corrected by ruin.”
- Thomas Jefferson
“Paper is poverty,… it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself.”
- Thomas Jefferson
Thursday, April 22, 2010
- The S&P 500 is beginning to run into a sheer wall of resistance.
- If you've banked some profits on the way up but are still reluctant to sell your long holdings I would suggest buying some put protection at this point in the game.
- I'm not saying the market is going to tank back into oblivion, but it truly is time for a pause in the rally.
S&P 500 Index
- I believe China's days could be numbered. It's just a matter of time before their enourmous property bubble pops. The market knows this and I think it's about to get a head start on the way down.
Friday, April 16, 2010
The SEC said Goldman Sachs (GS) structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized debt obligation, or CDO, that hinged on the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities. According to the SEC, Goldman Sachs failed to disclose to investors vital information about the CDO, in particular the role that a major hedge fund played in the portfolio selection process and the fact that the hedge fund had taken a short position against the CDO.
So what GS was doing was selling a package of subprime residential mortgage backed securities to its customers knowing that they were overpriced and in a bubble while at the same time they were in a short position profiting at their client's expense.
So about the fine. GS was fined 1 billion dollars which sounds like a lot of money but when you look into the fine it's a slap on the wrist. The clients lost 30, 40, 50 percent of their assets because of this fraud that GS profited on. What percent of GS's assets was this 1 billion dollar fine? 0.09% of their 2007 assets. When you were losing 50.00% of you assets because GS lied to you they were losing 0.09% of their assets. This is around 1.1% of their 2007 revenue and 8.6% of their net income. So Goldman Sachs lost most people's life savings when they knew they were toxic investments and they get fined around a month of 2007's income (31.5 days)sounds reallllly fair to me.
Monday, April 12, 2010
“It is 50-50 whether the eurozone breaks up. The damage that break up would cause is so great, that I think that as people realise it, they will pull back from the brink,” Soros told the Financial Times in an interview. “But we are at the brink now...a solution has to be found in a matter of days.”Greece is on the brink and I dare to say that the recent bailout won't be enough to save the mother of western civilization. The bailout rate is now rumored as being 6%. Greece simply can't afford this. Up next....Spain, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Britain....
Monday, March 22, 2010
“One of the consequences of such notions as "entitlements" is that people who have contributed nothing to society feel that society owes them something, apparently just for being nice enough to grace us with their presence.” - Thomas Sowell
“Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.” -Frederic Bastiat, French Economist (1801-1850)
“I don’t make jokes… I just watch the government and report the facts.” -Will Rogers
“If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it’s free!” -P.J. O’Rourke
“Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress….But then I repeat myself.” -Mark Twain
“I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.” -Winston Churchill
“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.” -Winston Churchill
“Socialism is workable only in heaven where it isn't needed, and in hell where they've got it” - Cecil Palmer
“Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it” -Thomas Sowell
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” - Winston Churchill
“Socialism: nothing more than the theory that the slave is always more virtuous than his master” - Henry Louis Mencken
“Socialism values equality more than liberty.” - Dennis Prager
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Monday, March 15, 2010
Friday, March 12, 2010
The bankruptcy report on Lehman is both revealing and damning. Once again, the investing public learns — after the fact — the basic truisms of modern markets:This is where it gets interesting. The SEC is limiting short selling (see here, and here), seen as a "devil" practice by some, in its efforts to "strengthen" the financial markets. What people don't seem to understand is that without short sellers we have no way to expose the truly fraudulent companies and rid our economy of excess fat. Short sellers don't be on a company to go bankrupt if it has truly efficient and profitable operations. They short because of some weakness in a companies fundamentals. Driving the bad companies out of business moves capital towards the stronger, more efficient businesses that can better utilize resources for society.
- Major accounting firms are worthless to investors. They were either unable or unwilling to detect fraud amounting to 50 billion dollars. The incompetents at Ernst & Young deserve the same fiery death as Arthur Anderson; Whether they are hired guns or paid whores, they — like the rating agencies — are worthless to investors.
- The Shortsellers turn out to be the good guys. Consider the absurdity fraud of “protecting” the bankster frauds — from the truth, as revealed by Einhorn et. al.
- The ban on short selling is an indictment of the inability of the SEC to understand WTF is going on, and a reward to the criminal corporate management teams.
Basically....without short selling we don't have efficient markets and without efficient markets society will not operate to its true potential.
The genesis of Repo 105 (Financial Times)
The "Repo 105" Scam: How Lehman Fooled Everyone (Including Allegedly Dick Fuld) And How Other Banks Are Likely Doing This Right Now (Zerohedge)
Renminbi rumours (Financial Times)
CDS Speculators May Or May Not Be Cause For Riots In Greece To Turn Violent (Zerohedge)
The Gold Standard (Mises)
Kansas City School District Faces Bankruptcy, Closes 29 of 61 schools; Every Child Left Behind For Decades (Mish)
The Stimulus Scam (Mises)
All Money In The United States Comes Into Existence As Debt – So What Will Happen Now That Bank Lending In The U.S. Is Contracting At The Fastest Rate In History? (The Economic Collapse)
Technicals & Trading=-
Potash (POT) Raises Guidance (Fund My Mutual Fund)
March 11, 2010 Looking at the TIPS Yield Curve (Crossing Wall Street)
Digital River (NASDAQ:DRIV): Checks Indicate McAfee Is Running Tests With DRIV; Raising Price Target to $34 - JMP Securities (Notable Calls)
Gartman: Here's Why Europe Is About To Dump Lots Of Gold Onto The Market (Temo1051)
Market Recap: The next important date is 03/12 (Cobra)
Elliott Wave Theory
From My Favorite Blogs
NY Fed Implicated in the Accounting Fraud at Lehman (Jesse's Café Américain)
EXPLOSIVE: Lehman - Where Are The Cops? (Market Ticker)
New Fed Z1: Market Move Is NOT Sustainable (Market Ticker)
Jim DeMint's bid to embrace tea party irks Senate GOP colleagues (Politico)
What Biden told Netanyahu behind closed doors: "This is starting to get dangerous for us"Politico)
(U.S. Government Confirms Sanctions Don't Work (Campaign for Liberty)
Is GOP Better Served If Health Care Passes Or Fails? (Real Clear Politics)
Other Analysis & Commentary
The Health Care Reform Bill: Welcome To The Biggest Tax Increase In U.S. History (Clusterstock)
Lehman Fraudulently Cooked Its Books, Accounting Giant Ernst & Young Helped, Geithner and Bernanke Winked and Slapped Them on the Back (Washington's Blog)
Thursday, March 11, 2010
"We have to pass the health care bill so that you can find out what is in it." That unfortunately is the sad state of affairs, not just with health care, but with virtually any bill passed by Congress.It's safe to say that Washington has no interest in representing the people anymore. The sheer ignorance and complacency of our elected officials baffles my mind. These people need to be voted out of office in 2010 and 2012. That is the only way we can begin down the road of recovery.
The only people who know what is in these bills are the lobbyists who write them.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
Here are two post where we called the governemnt's BS as early as September 2009....right when everyone was freaking out about it and rushing to the local pharmacy for an overpriced, flawed vaccine.
September 9, 2009 - Swine Flu Scare Tactic
November 11, 2009 - The Pandemic That Cried Wolf
Just remember...don't always believe what the government tells you. There are alternative motives behind everything and saving your life from the swine flu was NOT the motive behind this scare.
Have a good day,