Friday, December 11, 2009

The U.S. Dollar to Stocks Ratio Breaking Down?

I have believed for awhile now that when the dollar rallied stocks would crater. However, the negative correlation between the dollar and stocks has started to breakdown over the last few days. This is not to say that stocks can't fall. I am merely pointing out that my evaluation of the equity markets might need a second look.

What to do?

I love my short positions. I am just not sure if we don't have another, short lived rally brewing behind closed doors. I may pick up a few long positions today to hedge against the potential of another push higher.

U.S. Dollar Futures Daily Chart

The U.S. Dollar has been screaming higher over the past week.

S&P 500 Futures Daily Chart

The S&P 500 "should" have dropped. But, it has been trading in a tight range.

I will post another update if I do decide to hedge my short exposure. Until then we graciously wait for Mr. Market to pick a direction. He has been rather stubborn the past month. Seems as if he learned some of his flip-flopping skills from politicians. Wait? Could it be that the government is secretly manipulating the stock market? No, it couldn't be. Could it?

Have a good day!


  1. check out the rising triangle pot'l in ESH10 (e-mini S&P)

    and so I agree with another push in equities also SPX and SPY purport the same pot'l ....
    Watch out for a head fake over resistance un equities coming up SOON!

  2. Thanks for the comment...yeah I can easily see another push higher. I'm going to wait for a breakout of the /es 60 minute channel before I hedge. But if we are going to fall we better do it fast, because the bulls aren't going to wait around for forever.

  3. The diamond top on the e-mini that started in mid November is what catches my eye.... So many different opinions going around about a blow-off top; I personally don't think we're going to have one but it's tough to tell with whats going on now...