Friday, November 13, 2009

Portfolio Update - 11/13/2009 - Think Housing Has Bottomed? Guess Again!!

Portfolio Update: Sorry for the slow updates. However, nothing has changed. We are still in cash and awaiting a final bottom in the dollar and a final high in the stock market. In times of transition, like this. It is prudent to stay in cash and listen to what the market has to say, rather than making any rash decisions to "chase the market higher". No new positions will be taken today. Let's wait and see what comes our way next week.

Check out the graph and paragraph about the housing market at the bottom of this post.

100% Cash

Trades I'm pondering:

1) Long U.S. Dollar (UUP)

2) Short Gold (GLD)

3) Short Macy's (M)

4) Short Mylan (MYL)

5) Short Freeport McMoran (FCX)

Monthly Mortgage Rate Resets

The second wave of the housing crisis is upon us. Notice in the graph how the current stock market rally has taken place as monthly mortgage rate resets have been steadily falling. As of right now we have settled into a bottom in the reset market and mortgage resets will steadily start rising from here. Subprime is over. However the option adjustable rate and alt-a mortgages are going to start resetting to higher rates (reflecting the increased risk of default by most borrowers). This could send the housing market into another tailspin, much like 2007-2008. In my opinion this will be the catalyst for the coming start market crash I have been predicting.

Here is what James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, had to say:

“Rising unemployment and a new variety of mortgage resets continued to gradually shift the nation's foreclosure epicenters in the third quarter away from the hot spots of the last two years and toward some metro areas that had avoided the brunt of the first foreclosure wave. While toxic subprime mortgages drove much of that first wave of foreclosures, high unemployment and exotic Alt-A and Option ARMs are spreading the foreclosure flood to more metro areas in 2009”

This news of a shift in the character of foreclosure activity comes precisely in tandem with the beginning of the predictable second wave of the housing market decline. The pleasant lull in the reset schedule is decidedly behind us. As always do your own due diligence on any investment you may make.

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